Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: BY

Submission year: 2011

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants:	1990 – 2009
HMs and POPs:	1990 – 2009
PMs:	2000 – 2009

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009
NOx	1A2a																12044		52	38	42
NMVOC	NATIONALTOTAL	533000	546000	412000	372000	366000	195000	327700	344700	294000	239900	225000	215400	229285	308241	323972	188513	179875	177113	176807	171079
SOx	1A2a																8863		4	1	80
SOx	1A4cii												7233	6206	5745	4554	37	39	39	40	35
SOx	NATIONALTOTAL	637000	652000	458000	382000	324000	275000	246300	208500	190000	163700		150723	142719	131196	95472	76979	91459	97320	81312	155005
NH3	4B13	166656	160931	152760	145202	138358	131037	125196	122185	118813	113168		107348	102517	91718	90767	100080
CO	1A2a																31596		32	16	22

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009
TSP	2C5e			4655	4709	4218	4148	4157	3	4	6

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009
Pb	1A1a	13682318	13987220	9571032	7371369	6588340	5494442						2442000	2184716	1897850	1785143	1486000	1704000	2787000	2401000	7276000
Pb	1A2a																5421000	5285000	1067000	1136000	854000
Pb	1A3bi	734382000	451391000	387408000	323558000	302008000	109946000						1195000	1069385	1032376	1832884	2150000	2323000	553000	590000	605000
Pb	2C5e	9884044	10384926	10350219	8946868	8326581	6904717						13360000	13333510	14026702	15912554	17024000	18803000		52000	53000
Pb	6Cb						35000						4100000	3830272	71510	153657	141000	2221000	203000	307000	259000
Cd	1A1a	556950	570070	388400	301330	270640	226970						118000	108272	100022	96153	88000	100000	229000	187000	506000
Cd	1A2fi	906628	953653	870028	728195	571307	479590						680000	829745	936801	1008805	1114000	1241000	1391000	1534000	1574000
Cd	1A4cii	1242	58886	58239	53062	7765	6471						16000	20000	6666	5737	6000	7000	6000	7000	6000
Cd	2C1																		794000	881000	810000
Cd	2C5e	373835	402737	396312	341151	294635	249016						533000	530215	561037	634606	686000	761000
Cd	6Cb						3000						351000	327998	104139	12656	12000	190000	17000	26000	22000
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	2114401	2219344	1967419	1656996	1308126	1106038	1200000	1250000	1450000	1420000		1780000	1897606	1792307	1844305	2070000	2488000	2583000	2751000	3024000
Hg	1A1a	558332	567969	398969	309771	277237	232064						157000	134976	117523	106473	62000	69000	38000	47000	128000
Hg	1A2a																31000	33000	1000	1000	1000
Hg	1A2fi	469095	489426	432600	360828	291205	246889						326000	396476	446477	490617	529000	590000	676000	740000	761000
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	1074470	1101821	879477	721448	601528	510870	297000	310000	392000	380000		522000	565299	603438	632103	649000	716000	741000	814000	914000