Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: BY

Submission year: 2010

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 or NFR09 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. In case of a mixture of the reporting formats across the timeseries (e.g. only 2008 was reported in NFR09 and the rest of the time series is available only in NFR02) we converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants:	1990 – 2008
HMs and POPs:	1990 – 2008
PMs:	2000 – 2008

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008
NOx	1A2a																12044		52	38
NMVOC	NATIONALTOTAL	533000	546000	412000	372000	366000	195000	327700	344700	294000	239900	225000	215400	229285	308241	323972	188513	179875	177113	176807
SOx	1A2a																8863		4	1
SOx	1A4cii												7233	6206	5745	4554	37	39	39	40
NH3	4B13	166656	160931	152760	145202	138358	131037	125196	122185	118813	113168		107348	102517	91718	90767	100080
CO	1A2a																31596		32	16

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008
TSP	2C5e			4655	4709	4218	4148	4157	3	4

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008
Pb	1A1a		13986590	9588492	7371999	6588340							2442000	2184716	1897850	1785143	1486000	1704000	2787000	2401000
Pb	1A2a																5421000	5285000	1067000	1136000
Pb	1A3bi		3315000	3286000	2959000	1935000							1195000	1069385	1032376	1832884	2150000	2323000	553000	590000
Pb	2C5e		10384926	10350219	8946868	8326581							13360000	13333510	14026702	15912554	17024000	18803000		52000
Pb	6Cb												4100000	3830272	71510	153657	141000	2221000	203000	307000
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	797630000	70579568	65572796	56519307	47485888	148350000	46340000	42200000	41240000	37520000		40677000	43824522	43422064	44878388	50144000	56778000	58992000	63075000
Cd	1A1a		569790	396160	301610	270640							118000	108272	100022	96153	88000	100000	229000	187000
Cd	1A2fi		953653	870028	728195	535077							680000	829745	936801	1008805	1114000	1241000	1391000	1534000
Cd	6Cb												351000	327998	104139	12656	12000	190000	17000	26000
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	7590000	2184504	1906664	1597916	1225738	3480000	1200000	1250000	1450000	1420000		1780000	1897606	1792307	1844305	2070000	2488000	2583000	2751000
Hg	1A2a																31000	33000	1000	1000
Hg	1A2fi		503826	444120	368568	253421							326000	396476	446477	490617	529000	590000	676000	740000
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	480000	1356421	1065557	921708	688604	265000	297000	310000	392000	380000		522000	565299	603438	632103	649000	716000	741000	814000