Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: BG Submission year: 2014

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2012
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2012
PMs: 2000 - 2012

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
NOx	1A1a	57036	49372	40934	43798	42136	37050	35697	36822	40812	35504	36208	41362	44128	45922	44147	44762	46614	54788	56251	49258	48871	53626	47184
NOx	1A1b						3		9	5505	5193	4238	4267	4351	4548	3526	2737	1947	2573	11	9	12	11	1196
NOx	FUTOTAL	248580	175260	151439	151550	144662	151420	149294	146710	139187	120492	126051	129100	147129	148675	149927	153866	150656	141156	140476	117130	114529	135571	123208
NOx	GRIDTOTAL	248580	175260	151439	151550	144662	151420	149294	146710	139187	120492	126051	129100	147129	148675	149927	153866	150656	141156	140476	117130	114529	135571	123208
NOx	NATIONALTOTAL	248580	175260	151399	151550	144662	151420	149294	146710	139187	120492	126051	129100	147129	148675	149927	153866	150656	141156	140476	117130	114529	135571	123208
NMVOC	1A3bv	10407	4633	6320	6594	6682	5810	4474	2619	3209	2733	1796	1346	1189	1027	762	598	503	467	387	339	250	1710	2025
NMVOC	1B2av	4521	2139	2541	3270	7049	3600	3107	2123	2735	2667	2964	2032	3980	2036	2319	2105	3154	2286	2368	2438	2367	2211	2153
NMVOC	4D1a	37892	38501	28472	28044	25581	24465	21792	22311	24456	23680	11803	21937	18435	17902	19205	18248	19534	20876	19850	27693	24877	23903	14298
SOx	1A2a	204029	160803	125444	119860	110829	109308	105751	110229	69619	43807	86872	36221	30135	27262	23827	23194	16269	7003	6741	4127	2886	34157	11913
SOx	1A4bi	25371	24703	30826	33232	24548	19960	24776	18731	18681	12698	9517	6286	11359	13485	10419	9482	10153	8696	8151	5867	7938	9769	9492
NH3	2A4	942	804	465	234	406	716	779	757	732	622	832	1011	930	986	1028	1052	1055	1098	1129	752	1985	1256	1324
NH3	4B6	951	923	914	910	985	1137	1284	1364	1038	1098	1125	1161	1247	1287	1332	1122	1369	1389	586	1391	1372	1152	1166
NH3	4B7	2803	2784	2774	2591	2447	2354	2409	2434	1915	1841	1737	1623	1570	1570	1543	1138	1473	1451	9	1388	1259	1102	1109
NH3	4B8	32294	32553	28005	22262	18183	15540	15814	13962	11438	12295	9812	6453	6930	7733	7522	7180	7454	7214	6354	5756	5303	4860	4381
NH3	4B9d	18266	11896	2824	2824	2824	5271	3164	2703	2696	2668	2423	2462	3332	4074	2165	1881	1966	2297	2235	1286	1721	1386	1309
NH3	4D1a	6327	10133	5312	6855	4837	3571	3545	3441	3611	3218	54	3212	3489	3631	4117	4469	4519	5201	6102	9579	7569	7486	7392
CO	1A3bi	391043	197131	177604	193276	172051	178808	143952	90434	103234	89935	77350	67532	69113	66534	59694	55304	55678	48055	44418	43513	34246	34567	31578
CO	2A4	9416	8039	4650	2335	4059	7164	7795	7567	7325	6215	8323	10108	9300	9859	10279	10516	10553	10982	11291	7523	19852	12564	13243

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
PM2.5	1A2a	979	887	761	1065	737	922	884	786	315	5	0	18	7
TSP	1A1a	30182	27268	26768	32233	31749	30735	30956	38277	24818	20363	20851	23772	6642

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
Pb	1A2a	8560674	6893073	12813709	13368567	19047920	20465589	18932502	20106464	16717239	14284884	15154148	13881211	7229208	9943162	7184356	14161892	13484013	12211711	5281974	566289	514540	558665	480324
Pb	1A2fi	18330290	15601716	7720181	4854222	3992206	4458568	5191015	4629372	3897986	3026165	2634483	2614493	2802955	2328862	4075370	5016488	6760859	6851632	8646696	6607375	6920295	7916912	7478943
Pb	1A3bi	179484461	87214183	104328268	128787953	133784112	151946312	134225878	90590286	121901292	121952242	104164837	90876820	99442569	96867981	3222502	2873640	3439862	19489	85093	88750	85475	121377	123542
Pb	1A3bii			9010778	10371696	10905929	12685804	11501846	6800344	9475160	10143420	9021923	7268065	7875627	7546034	240531	242818	138971	734	3053	3075	2403	13536	14717
Pb	1A3biv	29168014	13736651	10252642	11154567	10576245	11005288	9028237	5835886	7162706	6592245	5212341	4318653	4342245	3949839	41080
Cd	1A1a	640557	516775	428583	479722	435501	382174	393121	320374	317606	262406	221172	198784	187340	216213	210203	207447	197574	235184	194445	188252	129346	124056	73089
Cd	1A1b									226554	223318	156180	173493	180017	188219	144039	105203	65469	101028	451	452	499	543	2150
Cd	1A1c	291777	291777	291777	428439	419903	474009	435333	467184	347329	313561	376794	452005	399749	440520	332976	297575	266201	210100	109161
Cd	1A2a	1770345	1354953	1104324	1043989	983305	971972	886825	886728	641401	439767	396917	353389	292976	398680	341923	389140	251920	220522	115541	134099	39717	61408	38777
Cd	1A2b	1690171	1256521	999456	1049030	1306241	1263013	1604501	1515730	1481991	1355712	1906903	1821383	1644308	1700670	1966228	1478731	1483814	1247581	2214426	1402522	1306655	1488184	1492658
Cd	1A2fi	324569	276255	136522	88399	78007	86807	95460	86595	76405	63489	57585	58146	61701	56325	86308	105741	143033	130367	160035	115003	115357	130986	123951
Hg	1A1a	546560	469463	423404	475460	494044	490871	492437	471535	469404	410858	364983	328973	321615	377044	373163	366352	367055	444126	296312	249089	235824	265918	167418
Hg	1A1b						5		15	72642	71508	50969	55809	57722	60289	46297	34322	22154	32994	165	145	162	175	631
Hg	1A2a	598293	460779	412952	396358	406424	410626	378435	393024	288951	212050	208011	167886	127195	174632	141059	181101	138731	122830	60471	43372	11802	26046	14370
Hg	1A2b	120150	97315	221826	241982	265290	296215	304014	424846	320035	319174	291697	273457	249355	940963	831909	214708	219360	220301	276247	238235	225754	198249	188327
Hg	1A2fi	807820	687962	341866	252898	289529	320908	292547	283557	288496	284653	273681	285395	296635	319336	381562	461247	628640	443178	491610	270003	215134	231663	223390
Hg	1A4bi	144677	134684	168456	177318	131362	106613	135625	108456	110880	76911	61331	42715	72966	85149	68145	62747	67150	58616	56181	43472	56240	67064	65782
Hg	2C1	140240	91460	164971	226863	221444	251328	217377	269964	230749	194922	190404	183172	132424	169925	165056	189087	217824	171847	170651	134372	112810	128178	97326
Hg	FUTOTAL	2443800	2009688	1773365	1825202	1860391	1946587	1877326	2003292	1828205	1611387	1496205	1395138	1310007	2186862	2060330	1558763	1711272	1531256	1391755	998223	873457	938381	776593
Hg	GRIDTOTAL	2443800	2009688	1773365	1825202	1860391	1946587	1877326	2003292	1828205	1611387	1496205	1395138	1310007	2186862	2060330	1558763	1711272	1531256	1391755	998223	873457	938381	776593
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	2443800	2009688	1780711	1825202	1860391	1946587	1877326	2003292	1828205	1611387	1496205	1395138	1310007	2186862	2060330	1558763	1711272	1531256	1391755	998223	873457	938381	776593

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
DIOX	1A1b									48	47	43	39	58	72	50	55	47	43	30	19	24	26	9994