Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: BG

Submission year: 2012

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

 

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):

Main pollutants:

1990 – 2010

HMs and POPs:

1990 – 2010

PMs:

2000 – 2010

 

Color Key

 

 Indicates a dip in the time series data

 

 Indicates a jump in the time series data

 

 Indicates time series data with large sigma


MAIN (Unit = Mg)
  199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010
NOx1A1b     3 9550551934238426743514548352627371947257311912
NOxFUTOTAL248543175035151439151522144637151398149273146678139131120448125993129158147063148630149959153931150654141222140557117317114708
NOxGRIDTOTAL248543175035151439151522144637151398149273146678139131120448125993129158147063148630149959153931150654141222140557117317114708
NOxNATIONALTOTAL248543175035151370151522144637151398149273146678139131120448125993129158147063148630149959153931150654141222140557117317114708
NMVOC1A3bv104074633632065946682581044742619320927331796134611891027762598503467387339250
NMVOC1B2av452121392541327070493600310721232735266729642032398020362319210531542286236824382367
NMVOC2B5a1657898718151643196638653560304040833065161916521557181216681711203811801425555113
NMVOC4D1a378923850128472280442558124465217922231124456236801180321937184351790219205182481953420876198502769324877
SOx1A4bi25362243073083133244245661998724801187341868412703939162171132413678103799457101228696813267168359
SOx2B5a8348647564756547686572618395889979827304102639925120161426515624163241615215153172491827816987
NH32A49428044652344067167797577326228321011930986102810521055109811297521985
NH34B7280327842774259124472354240924341915184117371623157015701543113814731451913881259
NH34B9d18266118962824282428245271316427032696266824232462333240742165188119662297223512861721
NH34D1a63271013353126855483735713545344136113218543212348936314117446945195201610295797569
CO1A3bi39104319713117760419327617205117880814395290434103234899357735067532691136653459694553045567848055444184351334246
CO2A49416803946502335405971647795756773256215832310108930098591027910516105531098211291752319852

PM (Unit = Mg)
  20002001200220032004200520062007200820092010
PM2.51A2a979887761106573792288478631550

HM (Unit = g)
  199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010
Pb1A2a85606746893073128137091336856719047920204655891893250220106464167172391428488415154148138812117229208994316271843561416189213484013122117115281974566289514540
Pb1A2fi18330290156017167720181485422239922064458568519101546293723897986302616526344832614493280295523288624075370501648867608596851632864669666073756920295
Pb1A3bi179484461872141831043282681287879531337841121519463121342258789059028612190129212195224210416483790876820994425699686798132225022873640343986219489850938875085475
Pb1A3bii  90107781037169610905929126858041150184668003449475160101434209021923726806578756277546034240531242818138971734305330752403
Pb1A3biv2916801413736651102526421115456710576245110052889028237583588671627066592245521234143186534342245394983941080      
Cd1A1b        22655422331815618017349318001718821914403910520365469101028451452499
Cd1A1c291777291777291777428439419903474009435333467184347329313561376794452005399749440520332976297575266201210100109161  
Cd1A2a177034513549531104324104398998330597197288682588672864140143976739691735338929297639868034192338914025192022052211554113409939717
Cd1A2b16901711256521999456104903013062411263013160450115157301481991135571219069031821383164430817006701966228147873114838141247581221442614025221306655
Cd1A2fi324569276255136522883997800786807954608659576405634895758558146617015632586308105741143033130367160035115003115357
Hg1A1b     5 1572642715085096955809577226028946297343222215432994165145162
Hg1A2a598293460779412952396358406424410626378435393024288951212050208011167886127195174632141059181101138731122830604714337211802
Hg1A2b12015097315221826241982265290296215304014424846320035319174291697273457249355940963831909214708219360220301276247238235225754
Hg1A2fi807820687962341866252898289529320908292547283557288496284653273681285395296635319336381562461247628640443178491610270003215134
Hg1A4bi144675134599168457177321131366106619135630108457110881769136059042291727338619867968626526702258566560244823658580
Hg2C114024091460164971226863221444251328217377269964230749194922190404183172132424169925165056189087217824171847170651134372112810
HgFUTOTAL24363492002116177336518177011852837193894318697131995658181907216028191484771138495013001002174488205227815515531702976152705513871351000743883785
HgGRIDTOTAL24363492002116177336518177011852837193894318697131995658181907216028191484771138495013001002174488205227815515531702976152705513871351000743883785
HgNATIONALTOTAL24363492002116177336518177011852837193894318697131995658181907216028191484771138495013001002174488205227815515531702976152705513871351000743883785

POP (Unit = mg)
  199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010
DIOX1A2a110389094246172150834724365903430638025314562804427269263492248931700218592739726286233389413346203
DIOX6Ca495495495495497503503502502515522513514814967109519476433517993528