Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report


Party: BG

Submission year: 2011

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.


The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):

Main pollutants:

1990 – 2009

HMs and POPs:

1990 – 2009


2000 – 2009


Color Key


 Indicates a dip in the time series data


 Indicates a jump in the time series data


 Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)
NMVOC3C           1529081031048713631245462821860178232
NH32B1           580036023908472951293993 42
NH36D             102209894   2 

HM (Unit = g)
Pb1A2a           240000001578000022539000158836001946770018133500122120925281523566279
Pb6D           1980000 1840000225894015695124627770   
Cd1A1b           380000384000403000327600262900195700101031454452
Cd1A2a           270000210000668000576399616700377800220740115301134101
Cd1A2b           819000010420000128370001350980010390300105680002167851  
Cd1A2fi           14000012700029000539006660089400130366160035115003
Cd6D           240000 231000193624134530396666   
Hg1A1a           146000014380001593000149650014599001542900444129367967352965
Hg1A2a           100000654001730001461001602001154001228476036643298
Hg1A2b           152000014300002308000222910010702001088600220301  
Hg1A2fi           400003530014000227002760037500443179491609270001
Hg1A4bi            273000326000332682317803342281514165000048236
Hg6D           360000 351000193623134530396666   
HgGRIDTOTAL             5034000465900633786333746747161227315557921175395
HgNATIONALTOTAL13200000    68800004700000431000046900004060000 399830038900005034000465900633786333746747161227315557921175395
HgSNAPTOTAL             50340004659006337863337467471612273