Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: BG

Submission year: 2010

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 or NFR09 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. In case of a mixture of the reporting formats across the timeseries (e.g. only 2008 was reported in NFR09 and the rest of the time series is available only in NFR02) we converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants:	1990 – 2008
HMs and POPs:	1990 – 2008
PMs:	2000 – 2008

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008
NMVOC	3C												15290	8103	10487	13631	24546	28218	60	178
SOx	NATIONALTOTAL	2008000	1665000	1115000	1426000	1480000	1476000	1420000	1365000	1251000	943000	1226000	940362	964497	968374	929305	900267	877289	854007	735219
NH3	2B1												5800	3602	3908	4729	5129	3993		4
NH3	6D														10220	9894				2

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008
Pb	6D												1980000		1840000	2258940	1569512	4627770
Cd	1A1b												380000	384000	403000	327600	262900	195700	101031	454
Cd	1A2a												270000	210000	668000	576399	616700	377800	220740	115301
Cd	1A2b												8190000	10420000	12837000	13509800	10390300	10568000	2167851
Cd	1A2fi												140000	127000	29000	53900	66600	89400	130366	160035
Cd	6D												240000		231000	193624	134530	396666
Hg	1A1a												1460000	1438000	1593000	1496500	1459900	1542900	444129	367967
Hg	1A2b												1520000	1430000	2308000	2229100	1070200	1088600	220301
Hg	1A2fi												40000	35300	14000	22700	27600	37500	443179	491609
Hg	1A4bi													273000	326000	332682	317803	342281	51416	50000
Hg	6D												360000		351000	193623	134530	396666
Hg	GRIDTOTAL														5034000	4659006	3378633	3746747	1612273	1555792
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	13200000					6880000	4700000	4310000	4690000	4060000		3998300	3890000	5034000	4659006	3378633	3746747	1612273	1555792
Hg	SNAPTOTAL														5034000	4659006	3378633	3746747	1612273