Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: BG

Submission year: 2009

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 or NFR08 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. In case of a mixture of the reporting formats across the timeseries (e.g. only 2007 was reported in NFR08 and the rest of the time series is available only in NFR02) we converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR08 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants:	1990 – 2007
HMs and POPs:	1990 – 2007
PMs:	2000 – 2007

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007
NMVOC	1A4bi													22700	23390	25869	24253	25682	7
NMVOC	3C												15290	8103	10487	13631	24546	28218	60
SOx	NATIONALTOTAL	2008000	1665000	1115000	1426000	1480000	1476000	1420000	1365000	1251000	943000	1226000	940362	964497	968374	929305	900267	877289	858891
NH3	NATIONALTOTAL	144000	124000	111000	109000	101000	99000	83000	77000	66000	60000	109000	56076	56424	52312	53879	57006	54923	58181
CO	NATIONALTOTAL	891000	608000	768000	820000	855000	846000	613000	515000	650000	617000	820000	619034	700384	715711	754687	740271	784598	250305

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007
Pb	6D												1980000		1840000	2258940	1569512	4627770
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	435850000					297490000	278810000	231240000	250780000	223510000		177279300	104757000	147917000	143392080	114812637	124104349	262654168
Cd	1A2a												270000	210000	668000	576399	616700	377800	220740
Cd	1A2b												8190000	10420000	12837000	13509800	10390300	10568000	2167851
Cd	1A2fi												140000	127000	29000	53900	66600	89400	130366
Cd	6D												240000		231000	193624	134530	396666
Hg	1A1a												1460000	1438000	1593000	1496500	1459900	1542900	444129
Hg	1A2b												1520000	1430000	2308000	2229100	1070200	1088600	220301
Hg	1A2fi												40000	35300	14000	22700	27600	37500	443179
Hg	1A4bi													273000	326000	332682	317803	342281	8030
Hg	6D												360000		351000	193623	134530	396666
Hg	GRIDTOTAL														5034000	4659006	3378633	3746747	1568886
Hg	SNAPTOTAL														5034000	4659006	3378633	3746747	1568886

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007
DIOX	NATIONALTOTAL	554196					456000	340935	309576	288430	245280		200630	218696	254889	239266	229532	247260	58123