Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: BE

Submission year: 2012

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

 

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):

Main pollutants:

1990 – 2010

HMs and POPs:

1990 – 2010

PMs:

2000 – 2010

 

Color Key

 

 Indicates a dip in the time series data

 

 Indicates a jump in the time series data

 

 Indicates time series data with large sigma


MAIN (Unit = Mg)
  199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010
NOx1A2a1492915487123231502117145156561527017166157491622217030159721711519231194411625714549134991368057429017
NOxFUTOTAL401420405963398537392366398312389713366873356923353879324059332097316212298817297047300121291002265284262458238679207459220706
NOxNATIONALTOTAL401420405963398537392366398312389713366873356923353879324059332097316212298817297047300121291002265284262458238679207459220706
NOxUNFCCCTOTAL400433404913397469391264397114388491365497355447352258322360329685314498297356295514298542288702262895259908235794204970217923
NMVOC1B2b391435753464420036073693357033973286331135123439330432023140332033913432330133663655
NMVOC3D294091915519200192371886317876189611899019021190831273219188193001936319451136621391414183143171442914524
NMVOC3D3560696329671956992719381909295478342870251066867706966535605342035233137300831503205
SOx1A2a1573215822157891817818483143901257313587119211120314150127411199912712136041253610204105811168447627247
SOx1A3di(i)126411202511834117011209512319124331331613459141721203814538150451457211783122511206110638822571253817
SOx2A1433443654466449946004686433548684483448049464435531456694783523748926253450144484725
SOx2A257095333516456615603578956425946636864965874556857725482315531233064310822496611011
SOx2B5a17998166291318711806572610038929068529391674785207801505635223399353732083927313819412371
NH34B1a201481650215901143561419815661142381375813868136021458314645142051371012477121651185311260110681119811076
CO1A2a261177243804225931362048317072312193290064319277318703290775383650359591348666349741368620337814257934298919298036124270166770
CO1A3biii20348350583583837200372633276322518235982371321222177492215021932215832149416207155451412212084971610462
CO2C5e 615423706345391721418083447643913472714994253122512829817966254575341
COFUTOTAL1355915135526013367941235612115103010571241081765101331597806399518510284681013432983310951340897732717304703501618477614449380851461239
CONATIONALTOTAL1355915135526013367941235612115103010571241081765101331597806399518510284681013432983310951340897732717304703501618477614449380851461239
COUNFCCCTOTAL1354199135347613350001233809114906610550851079567101108797568099269710257561010955981107949090895511714783700913615751611600378250458658

PM (Unit = Mg)
  20002001200220032004200520062007200820092010
PM2.52A7a758758758758758764758759787749747

HM (Unit = g)
  199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010
Pb1A1a35028226313205994146991612633021098689727717551493244291776135203510919771390425119065897648810276821167816128257310785977580238692251182811744733
Pb1A2a13565101625370151985014720101375991104346093483001045709579206091389396505028651001544767106191712966467475405893507927907840708039401279480
Pb1A2b1190132011650110175041106357140223696174128107649140508117458810049729294310141030040475310013360297360122360127340117280116300110050
Pb1A2fi7011573491862664781352617776441058025516644244121032724285346218413798791165033187724923415612571402181831119204781247669280503724971451854833731689
Pb1A3bi3106188862463205912144062991623131591388604601288877669522790385501786792863702866007745317428548877818632880715997587330339884429710682847808237531822382742078712
Pb1A3biii12602602126620861458288414778702158542191362762807482323701924411401424271221878218842284021965214133910621959200841961818812
Pb1B2aiv      10000 12000 10080002000   105100010500001050000105700010500001050000
Pb2A24613104339904192204194204397604473904315604305904540504638204433304259604411604188201724501159303852604413501656501067702346880
Pb2C5e148872881284800017667000346520001825162825452500195190309901900711361030649354881355359873107503623253531686852429088921079590856362685975998412744836674083787318
Pb2G    12449743  15077131 3308  54898484541450      
Pb6Cc170391931478539098467733238227316961107710416591015521148516621221772241540101608851545289059383376626229084350301008917073440
Cd1A1a1020823911725114326194060859591950755997781099679849410105316059092723133608130949173038148121124374116512117612102588104284
Cd1A2b175823017951102739110181407521015750091440114001474001127052104863012371046936512061706160510051405080
Cd1A2c78930983208979077570652706068043950387403568036980109980410902415523817215971038501015409798010057094630103930
Cd1A2fi959271064539269890390865035338075338591178161407991153886870090532575167404577755886896693991267794556523364279
Cd1A3bi73326773895067692272183376584333549406294100541598443614316044942452874572846501403494350641866417874200741094
Cd1B1b404470391342340970273533256100256840256470229700199230192010193590196530164530163660175670170710173870153410911905870090340
Cd2B5a1248001478001480013800138001333014130713041510058001160116067374707803745030004500740044105020
Cd2C1922920851340772910685240786150792140817730660520823450640610116398081064052473056314061584081221010511108992501035690352890600860
Cd2C5e40900036300037000035650001657000219136010768402219679266840771156436730197170498661416950688014402020261020261020244020468020646000
Cd2G    295823  305513 1172000 507171 100010001000100010001000
Cd6Cc89788483224262259919118918834532987456615524333232019243137309514198937595106105598335090401579001822046980
CdFUTOTAL719731069228577549259638537749148085269344415645543152812780973244680730462802063670195518419131422321912267529927478932506875278452020520432650757
CdNATIONALTOTAL719731069228577549259638537749148085269344415645543152812780973244680730462802063670195518419131422321912267529927478932506875278452020520432650757
CdUNFCCCTOTAL719731069228577549259638537749148085269344415645543152812780973244680730462702063670195518419131422321912267528927478832506865278451020520332650747
Hg1A1a2118418195838521316737445367416019561927281507615266370443924805544334899481307497125371993236519693612117712102617416411484094897
Hg1A1b6000600060006000700265008000800680007300130009300690076067300800070008000100004000233000
Hg1A2fi7599169602703686512561922707591179466318073293600757172162273592135267345542537705481858178483684538258298
Hg2A1326190325280335150331460343020348870326790334390333970331440310300290860367050410710563510236980228890392680441840537710227820
Hg2B5a1990780982110102411013271101718456978200983110892996797050636165684900499900285740302072342457271000292000217000221000224000199000
Hg2C128182026248023172020005028474026862022396033259040826031694063922042272042917046219046594073707066461016629701942040240580448910
Hg2C5e         6810001422602202992201012201220001110001160001110001080004000054000
Hg6Cc1276471117440411326013931203134332474194732733606201153401011291802019888260051276425820105641180280018150668024570

POP (Unit = mg)
  199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010
DIOX2C5e6830068000680006800068000673006700067000670001000020902080107070 285180210179357311
HCB2A18671990600006000060000700007000060000600006000060000934000060000600006000060000837000087087408650670837000076000007110000
HCB2C192252008300000701000054200005960000687000057700006450000703000069800007520000796000085500008400000741000061700006325980610895065700007400002030000
HCB6Cc71373075000074000074000080000078000086000081000078000076000065000068000091000010400001110000100000011413301192720127000012500002060000
HCBFUTOTAL1861092091100007810000622000068300007720000669000073200007870000780000017510000870000095200009500000858000015540000161760501595234016210000959000011200000
HCBNATIONALTOTAL1861092091100007810000622000068300007720000669000073200007870000780000017510000870000095200009500000858000015540000161760501595234016210000959000011200000
HCBUNFCCCTOTAL1861092091100007810000622000068300007720000669000073200007870000780000017510000870000095200009500000858000015540000161760501595234016210000959000011200000