Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: BE

Submission year: 2011

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

 

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):

Main pollutants:

1990 – 2009

HMs and POPs:

1990 – 2009

PMs:

2000 – 2009

 

Color Key

 

 Indicates a dip in the time series data

 

 Indicates a jump in the time series data

 

 Indicates time series data with large sigma


MAIN (Unit = Mg)
  19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009
NOx1A2a149291548712323150211714515656152701716615749162221703015972171151923119441162571454913521136865699
NOx1A4bi1617017676176991777817087178882108918232186991770516786183621699118491177821756116700152981680816417
NOxFUTOTAL399810405963398537392366398312389713366873356923353879324059334419316212298817297047300121290274268392262987241196213277
NOxNATIONALTOTAL399810405963398537392366398312389713366873356923353879324059334419316212298817297047300121290274268392262987241196213277
NOxUNFCCCTOTAL398824404913397469391264397114388491365497355447352258322360332008314498297356295514298542287977266001260437238311210545
NMVOC1A1b155664214984663443923904134383861108040239841039572555640423142944059
NMVOC1B2b39143575346442003607369335703397328633113512343933043202314033203391343233013398
NMVOC3A2299973344132798323512845327524265642392122644203561967921411190221746515509144111405914086131789063
NMVOC3D1123011144012152128151122310773104511093211194976699731029483567473694267777136658854173773
NMVOC3D21734619155192001923718863178761896118990190211908318238191881930019363194511873218887190411910719130
SOx1A1a95158901218329378959788647800169246611876172333767350593101829477300053329529393251411834179214348
SOx1A2a157321582215789181781848314390125731358711921112031415012741119991271213604125361021310581116804765
SOx1A3di(i)116681202511834117011209512319124331331613459141721196214538150451457211783121961582913783105889018
SOx2A25709533351645661560357895642594663686496587455685772548231553123306431082249661
SOx2B5a1799816629131871180657261003892906852939167478520780150563522339936403322400631821990
CO1A2a261177243804225931362048317072312193290064319277318703290775383660359591348666349741368620337816330780298933298044122658
CO1A3biii203463505835838372003726332763225182359823713212221774322150219322158321494170391553613199114689481
CO2C1269064268233293524845057675711221710262158920100752574209811287052592315982053782410703370025592333242665
CO2C5e 6154237063453917214180834476439134727133942531225128298172912129030239432429116629
COFUTOTAL1329532135526013367941235612115103010571241081765101331597806399518510017311013432983310951340897732789692762244599905594298366926
CONATIONALTOTAL1329532135526013367941235612115103010571241081765101331597806399518510017311013432983310951340897732789692762244599905594298366926
COUNFCCCTOTAL132781613534761335000123380911490661055085107956710110879756809926979990181010955981107949090895511787170759657597179591447364324

HM (Unit = g)
  19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009
Pb1A1a35001488313205994146991612633021098689727717551493244291776135203510919771413195119065897648810276821167816130760311035777927638990351172731
Pb1A2a1356510162537015198501472010137599110434609348300104570957920609138939811702865100154476710619171296646750740588760792990784250804170
Pb1A2b1190132011650110175041106357140223696174128107649140508117458810049729294130141030040475310013360297100122120127100117080116010
Pb1A2fi7012503491862664781352617776441058025516644244121032724285346218413798791107923187724923415612571402181831118455581217569277217724777851690868
Pb1A3bi306111880246320591214406299162313159138860460128887766952279038550178679286370286600774429525854887781863288071599758733039085222901548440959438108313789032
Pb1A3biii125988741266208614582884147787021585421913627628074823237019244114014238818218782188422840219654127235318225842155321080
Pb1A3bvi1373000    1509000    1566002    16300001627001232126623324462276445
Pb1A4bi32053244747498453907244626093520111240970242850783593905341307432292121791339311137327317202921016288206716516641654015157183415876751580630
Pb2C5e14740000128480001766700034652000182516282545250019519030990190071136103064935488127323107310750362325353168685242908892102326204894980527571036151607024120
Pb2G    12449743  15077131 3308674000 54898484541450416000541000488000453000306000
Pb6Cc1703919314785390984677332382273169611077104165910155211485166212217722415401016088515452890593833766262290843503010089170
Cd1A1a1013743911725114326194060859591950755997781099679849410105321164092723133608130949173038204971181634181422181372110348
Cd1A1b1100011000110001100011000109001300014300330001750023300012500102001290011900234000242000240000234000231000
Cd1A2b17582301795110273911018140752101575009144011400147400112705180486301237104693651006140610050804010
Cd1A2c789309832089790775706527060680439503874035680369801317304109024155238172159711519011297011077010951097020
Cd1A2e98880104620107620111690105650901507904068980688506752077780819706954064730665905089040200381703374017470
Cd1A2fi9685710645392698903908650353380753385911781614079911538877230905325751674045777559448971039953878408587418
Cd1A3bi732770738950676922721833765843335494062941005415984436142713449424528745728465014293943096414084131341313
Cd1B1b4044703913423409702735332561002568402564702297001992301920101935901965301645301636601756701707101738701534109119058700
Cd2B5a124800147800148001380013800133301413071304151005800116011606737470780374503000450074004410
Cd2C19229208513407729106852407861507921408177306605208234506406101163980810640524730563140615840951210120111010342501161690443890
Cd2C5e40900036300037000035650001657000219136010768402219679266840771156425730197170498661416950688014394020250020251020251020477020
Cd2G    295823  305513 11713000 507171 90001100010000100007000
Cd6Cc897884832242622599191189188345329874566155243332320192431373095141989375951061055983350904015790018220
CdFUTOTAL71887836922857754925963853774914808526934441564554315281278097324468073218059206367019551841913142232191229201612989434273789830122322175163
CdNATIONALTOTAL71887836922857754925963853774914808526934441564554315281278097324468073218059206367019551841913142232191229201612989434273789830122322175163
CdUNFCCCTOTAL71887836922857754925963853774914808526934441564554315281278097324468073218049206367019551841913142232191229201512989424273788830122222175153
Hg1A1a2111395195838521316737445367416019561927281507615266370443924805623134899481307497125371993236520824613171713288618589494870
Hg1A1b60006000600060007002650080008006800073002330009300690076067300238000237000238000240000234000
Hg1A2fi76381696027036865125619227075911794663180732936007567791622735921352673455424839051178538584489836404
Hg2A1326190325280335150331460343020348870326790334390333970331440310300290860367050410710563510236980228890392680441840537710
Hg2B5a1990780982110102411013271101718456978200983110892996797050636165664900499900285740302072342457271000292000217000221000224000
Hg2C128182026248023172020005028474026862022396033259040826031694063922042272042917046219046594074607067361016719701950040245580
Hg2C5e         68100014226022029922010122012200011100011600011800010800040000
Hg6Cc12764711174404113260139312031343324741947327336062011534010112918020198882600512764258201056411802800181506680

POP (Unit = mg)
  19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009
HCB2C19225200830000070100005420000596000068700005770000645000070300006980000752000079600008550000840000074100006170000632598061089506570000740000
HCBFUTOTAL99971409110000781000062200006830000772000066900007320000787000078000008240000870000095200009500000858000072300007530660736473079000002050000
HCBNATIONALTOTAL99971409110000781000062200006830000772000066900007320000787000078000008240000870000095200009500000858000072300007530660736473079000002050000
HCBUNFCCCTOTAL99971409110000781000062200006830000772000066900007320000787000078000008240000870000095200009500000858000072300007530660736473079000002050000