Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: BE

Submission year: 2010

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 or NFR09 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. In case of a mixture of the reporting formats across the timeseries (e.g. only 2008 was reported in NFR09 and the rest of the time series is available only in NFR02) we converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

 

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):

Main pollutants:

1990 – 2008

HMs and POPs:

1990 – 2008

PMs:

2000 – 2008

 

Color Key

 

 Indicates a dip in the time series data

 

 Indicates a jump in the time series data

 

 Indicates time series data with large sigma


MAIN (Unit = Mg)
  1990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008
NOx1A1a60616602665812955763591435646753536480355062835232425173577931663345353610934656284992476116571
NOx1A4bi16170176761769917778170871788821089182321869917705167861836216991184911778217561167001529817159
NMVOC1A3bi796367920576412684386368757217517614588541577411243699132656280392473820973175051440462313950
NMVOC3A11963711260115681183610042100287653763876976704629162256326594456935670533752835283
SOx1A1a9515890121832937895978864780016924661187617233376735059310182947730005332952939525143183427911
SOx1A4bi27094295942847927663231882405228392243142342422273200752186719752212412073720398184351666211665
SOx2B5a179981662913187118065726100389290685293916747852078015056352233993631323739963178
CO2C5e 61542370634539172141808344764391347271339425312251282981729121290302408924431

HM (Unit = g)
  1990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008
Pb1A1a3500148831320599414699161263302109868972775555149324429177613520351091977138713211906589764881027682116781612047741059227741443890545
Pb1A2a135651016253701519850147201013759911043460934830010457095792060913893912917028651001544767106191712966461261479110969312196881178541
Pb1A2b119013201165011017504110635714022369617412810764914050811745881004972921690830141030040475310013360236596226262410916072
Pb1A2fi701250349186266478135261777644105802551664424412103272428534621841379879181662318772492341561257140218183111585336165548225733222276395
Pb1A3biii125948981266208614582884147787021585421931455728074823237019244114014222094218782188422840219652392917717960960
Pb1A4bi4343074474749845390724462609352011136242124285078359390534130743229212290039931113732731720292101628820672821074271273515720541749226
Pb2C5e147400001284800017667000346520001825162825442500195190309901900711361030649354888122310731075036232535316868524290889240842904393159132424460316432007
Pb2G    12449743  15077131 3308  5489848454145011223655871551496
Pb6Cc16564660147853909846773323822731696110771088359101552114851662122177229578510160885154528905938342042622908435030100
Cd1A1a1013743911725114326194060859591950555997781099679849410105317889692723133608130949173038997269203495752100022
Cd1A2b17582301795110273911018140752101575009144011400147400112701578048630123710469361007843803402
Cd1A2e988801046201076201116901056509015079040689806885067520681808197069540647306659038590281003215014880
Cd1A2fi96857106453926989039086503533807533859117816140799115388834309053257516740457775570728465907018782241
Cd1A3bi7311577389506769227218337658433285540629410054159844361446654494245287457284650146193454354108441084
Cd1A4bi258051274547269923260415238213247552291033250493245111233787217925238419214074229351222740220281196195254414290357
Cd2B5a12480014780014800138001380013330141307130415100580011601160673747078037450300045007400
Cd2C1922920851340772910685240786150792140817730660520823450640610943980810640524730563140615840381210478110561250749690
Cd2C5e40900036300037000035650001657000219136010768402219679266840771156193730197170498661416950688014485903497687276152216018
Cd2G    295823  305513 117  507171 16183  
Cd6Cc8699228322426225991911891883453299125661552433323201924311230951419893759510610559833509040157900
Hg1A1a211139519583852131673744536741601956192728150761526637044392480530915489948130749712537199323651585729689782856149024
Hg1A2fi763816960270368651256192270759117946631807329360075590916227359213526734554235690356703876941054
Hg2B5a1990780982110102411013271101718456978200983110892996797050636165340900499900285740302072342457268032257014214764218737
Hg2C128182026248023172020005028474026862022396033259040826031694056022042272042917046219046594041407031961014639701837040
Hg2C5e         68100026022029922010122012200024400026700012400032000
Hg6Cc1250204117440411326013931203134332561524732733606201153401011291672019888260051276425820215141180280018150

POP (Unit = mg)
  1990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008
DIOX1A4bi45050458054516144431427354317646182423164081740221403204102237206378073755637579366553634336795
DIOX6Cb90002287502047501797501679701357675271634746227201201013000140003080410031204070307030703070