Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: BE

Submission year: 2009

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 or NFR08 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. In case of a mixture of the reporting formats across the timeseries (e.g. only 2007 was reported in NFR08 and the rest of the time series is available only in NFR02) we converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR08 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants:	1990 – 2007
HMs and POPs:	1990 – 2007
PMs:	2000 – 2007

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007
NOx	1A3ai(ii)							9	100	394	554	831	23142	1448	4145	2065	1228	1590	2053
NOx	1A3di(i)	17985	18686	18534		19187	19548	19778	21203	21452	22594	19653	2761	23905	23131	19336	19817	24377	26151
NOx	1A4bi	16170	17676	17699	17778	17087	17888	21089	18232	18699	17705	16786	18362	16991	18491	17782	17561	16700	15377
NMVOC	3A1	19637	11260	11568	11836	10042	10028	7653	7638	7697	6704	6291	6225	6326	5944	5693	5670	5638	5603
SOx	1A3ai(ii)							1	8	31	43	65	14538	113	324	162	96	124	161
SOx	1A3di(i)	11668	12025	11834		12095	12319	12433	13316	13459	14172	11962	1043	15045	14572	11783	12196	15829	13784
SOx	2B5a	17998	16629	13187	11806	5726	10038	9290	6852	9391	6747	8520	7801	5056	3520	3399	3631	3237	3996
NH3	4D2c	4231	4422	4344	4321	4223	4320	4283	4273	4268	4273	4246	4435	4249	4155	4081	4018	3977	3302
CO	2C5e		61	54	23706	34539	17214	18083	44764	391	34727	133	94	25312	25128	29817	29121	29176	23943

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007
Pb	1A1a	36323815	31320599	41469916	1263302	1098689	7277555	5149324	4291776	1352035	1091977	1387132	1190658	976488	1027682	1167816	1204774	1059227	742153
Pb	1A2a	1356510	1625370	1519850	1472010	1375991	1043460	9348300	1045709	5792060	913893	9129170	2865100	1544767	1061917	1296646	1261479	1109693	1219548
Pb	1A2b	11901320	11650110	17504110	6357140	2236961	7412810	7649140	508117	4588100	497292	1690830	1410300	40475	31001	33602	36596	22626	24090
Pb	1A2fi	7012563	4918626	6478135	2617776	4410580	25516644	24412103	2724285	3462184	1379879	1816623	1877249	2341561	2571402	1818311	1585336	1655622	2568096
Pb	1A3biii	12594898	12662086	14582884	14778702	15854219	314557	280748	232370	192441	140142	22094	21878	21884	22840	21965	23929	17717	17941
Pb	2C5e	14740000	12848000	17667000	34652000	18251628	25442500	19519030	99019007	11361030	64935488	8122310	7310750	36232535	31686852	42908892	40842904	39315913	24279748
Pb	2G					12449743			15077131		3308			54898	48454	1450	1122	36558	7155
Pb	6Cc	16563657	14784387	9845770	32381270	1695350	7709880	590130	520375	516318	221772	295785	101608	85154	52890	59383	121202	62290	84350
Cd	1A1a	1151551	911725	1143261	94060	85959	195055	599778	109967	98494	101053	178896	92723	133608	130949	173038	99726	92034	95432
Cd	1A2b	1758230	1795110	2739110	18140	75210	157500	91440	11400	147400	11270	15780	48630	1237	1046	936	1007	843	793
Cd	1A2fi	96917	106453	92698	90390	86503	533807	533859	117816	140799	115388	83430	90532	57516	74045	77755	70728	46672	68531
Cd	1A3bi	731157	738950	676922	721833	765843	32855	40629	41005	41598	44361	44665	44942	45287	45728	46501	46193	45435	45278
Cd	2B5a	111000	134000	1000		13800	330	330	7130	410000	5800	660	660	673	7470	7803	7450	3000	4500
Cd	2C1	922920	851340	772910	685240	786150	792140	817730	660520	823450	640610	943980	810640	524730	563140	615840	381210	478110	561250
Cd	2C5e	409000	363000	370000	3565000	1657000	2191360	1076840	2219679	266840	771156	193730	197170	498661	416950	688014	485903	497687	276152
Cd	2G					295823			305513		117			507	171		161	83
Hg	1A1a	2266544	1958385	2131673	744536	741601	956192	728150	761526	637044	392480	530915	489948	1307497	1253719	932365	158572	96897	82886
Hg	1A2fi	76389	69601	70367	65124	61922	70759	117946	63180	73293	60075	59091	62273	59213	52673	45542	35690	35695	38270
Hg	2A1	326190	325280	335150	331460	343020	348870	326790	334390	333970	331440	310300	290860	367050	410710	563510	236980	228890	392680
Hg	2B5a	1990670	982000	1024000	1327000	1718456	978000	983000	892996	797000	636165	276000	435000	285740	302072	342457	268032	257014	214764
Hg	2C1	281820	262480	231720	200050	284740	268620	223960	332590	408260	316940	560220	422720	429170	462190	465940	414070	319610	1463970
Hg	2C5e										681000	260	220	299220	101220	122000	244000	267000	124000
Hg	6Ca	8787	8787	8787	8787	20403	183349	183258	175908	30	30	12950	15500	3000	6870	9740	2000
Hg	6Cc	1241417	1165617	1123814	384333	304870	247365	464594	359252	115310	101129	16720	19888	26005	12764	25820	21514	1180	2800

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007
DIOX	1A4bi	45050	45805	45161	44431	42735	43176	46182	42316	40817	40221	40320	41022	37206	37807	37556	37579	36656	36343
DIOX	6Cb	9000	228750	204750	179750	154650	130750	47696	29726	22720	12000	13000	14000	3070	4070	3070	4070	3070	3070