Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: AT

Submission year: 2012

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants:	1990 – 2010
HMs and POPs:	1990 – 2010
PMs:	2000 – 2010

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
NOx	1A3	91630	91281	89978	88433	87835	85856	85041	84664	85288	86095	86658	85779	85043	85486	85209	85081	84056	82895	79671	72660	68313
NOx	1A4cii	9340	9381	9488	9569	9665	9254	9626	10126	9952	10071	9794	10118	9995	9405	9503	9873	9679	9471	9235	8202	7693
NMVOC	1A3	69829	69130	69025	68191	66692	61702	56444	50975	45822	41083	36165	31744	28002	24713	21949	19605	17540	15816	14315	12974	12158
SOx	1A2a	6729	5348	3479	3940	4243	4215	4760	4755	4702	4734	4465	4795	4896	5036	4707	5313	5768	5618	5286	4968	4924
SOx	1A4ai	5232	3954	3300	2721	2442	2225	2652	2493	2172	2570	2017	2336	2175	2616	1890	1401	1562	1020	1174	246	411
SOx	1A4bi	25870	24347	21374	18179	16282	15990	15856	10204	9620	9318	8609	8377	7369	6865	6624	6141	5663	4752	4915	1953	2284
SOx	2B5a	1565	1292	1019	746	729	712	695	678	612	595	595	766	766	766	766	766	766	766	766	766	766
NH3	1A3	2862	4034	5221	6280	7313	7187	6928	6482	6019	5519	4960	4365	3792	3246	2731	2293	1888	1569	1329	1114	990
NH3	1A3bi	2715	4216	5157	5978	6693	6511	5943	5447	5483	4785	4362	4113	4123	3870	3374	2884	2375	1988	1560	1345	1187
NH3	4B1b	17609	17727	16898	17330	17664	19702	19328	18204	17725	18127	19464	19345	18949	19411	19840	19487	19587	19716	19681	20110	20006
NH3	4B9a	4861	4987	4763	5028	4908	4868	4520	5161	5010	5105	4099	4405	4405	4571	4571	4571	4571	4571	4571	4571	4571
CO	FUTOTAL	1432954	1444822	1453012	1444242	1416500	1306170	1298584	1207364	1127693	1065497	982495	918611	840668	809336	767932	742910	712413	665576	643539	597222	606077
CO	NATIONALTOTAL	1436443	1500521	1471566	1439708	1386467	1273538	1248256	1151360	1109684	1031747	958570	919134	882426	873782	835297	808585	769405	717206	678265	631794	638862

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
Pb	1A1a	904845	944650	755532	585577	528110	518748	643830	691214	620456	559158	754735	850836	987408	1150161	1159505	1112509	1330241	1537839	1668505	1601540	1873526
Pb	1A2b	4082152	3788323	2985693	2800778	2653528	3111185	3112280	2613662	2088638	1564092	1039014	1052328	1052704	1052684	1052686	1052515	1052474	1052564	1052563	1052669	1052428
Pb	1A2fi	4403648	4641393	3862418	3521967	3376125	2985540	2535021	1855401	1377287	1034129	514992	552699	524464	548361	568572	688259	735401	957402	1084059	1061201	1269204
Pb	1A3	167314494	124116425	88554681	59095223	37107814	17939	17759	15202	14695	14451	13821	12722	12501	11732	10565	10182	10028	9865	9558	9324	9065
Pb	1A3aii(i)	1726028	1778658	1832894	1888783	1946376	14	14	16	17	18	14	12	15	16	15	17	18	18	19	20	18
Pb	1A3bi	146935389	117243137	77535946	48837804	28829084	9918	9261	8891	9459	8895	8730	8978	9899	10363	10301	10133	9935	9831	8955	8890	8749
Pb	1A3bii	14664729	11391664	8377884	5666721	3344715	815	790	771	757	746	734	711	683	664	649	659	654	642	597	571	563
Pb	1A4bi	3819166	4230552	3780622	3421763	3110875	3135645	3214009	2745365	2574128	2501388	2308358	2366031	2137009	2028282	1962544	2046303	1889660	1806913	1867729	1753119	1958276
Pb	2C1	32091626	27090229	18608240	15144977	12024342	4679299	4259928	4791003	4702700	4906128	5480488	5350192	5649015	5675439	5898690	6492817	6607622	6999941	6974699	5156802	6645315
Pb	FUTOTAL	218796910	170081897	122928255	88145851	61671117	16082336	15524230	14463997	12979852	12427491	11908756	12032690	12168849	12471191	12819297	13557146	13698897	14394976	14728422	12498318	14848473
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	218958924	179882928	124860375	87417244	59900839	16082051	15523928	14463272	12980163	12427254	11908853	12033600	12171219	12474581	12822978	13560976	13702423	14398533	14731171	12501206	14851569
Cd	1A3bvii	56540	59259	61269	62645	65169	66577	68155	69958	72035	74206	76337	77594	79098	81119	82543	84822	87775	90543	90136	88692	89438
Cd	FUTOTAL	1583475	1532263	1252674	1167505	1067573	978010	999022	969255	899176	947116	922455	948658	933572	971059	975083	1056988	1056418	1088060	1115209	1037526	1141433
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	1583723	1532770	1253063	1167859	1067813	978267	999641	969556	899945	947647	923191	949741	935184	973101	977242	1059217	1058341	1089993	1116824	1039143	1143281
Hg	1A2fi	712599	592667	445445	304521	158223	107280	102480	118224	103162	118246	118462	147789	145419	167025	144154	165359	190450	202677	217299	206599	179432
Hg	2B5a	270117	252107	234099	216105	198103	180077	180079	180078	110082	45083	86	81	85	90	92	88	92	75	88	72	88
Hg	FUTOTAL	2143678	2039911	1642763	1393735	1181022	1201750	1160191	1132686	948486	933566	889626	953268	915775	956582	928958	987986	1006417	1008669	1025470	891994	985516
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	2143764	2040089	1642900	1393859	1181106	1201840	1160408	1132791	948755	933752	889884	953647	916340	957296	929713	988766	1007090	1009345	1026035	892560	986162

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
DIOX	1A2b	50336	24922	2739	2126	2152	2163	2207	6109	6107	1740	1738	2217	2220	2220	2220	2219	2219	2220	2220	2221	2218
DIOX	6Cb	11445	11408	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0
DIOX	FUTOTAL	160689	135127	76764	67049	56356	58568	59832	59367	56097	53512	51854	52819	39707	39273	39383	42202	38841	37544	37575	34399	38307
DIOX	NATIONALTOTAL	160760	135467	76918	67125	56357	58583	59935	59400	56297	53654	52065	53122	40120	39765	39884	42705	39253	37948	37923	34734	38704
HCB	1A2b	17151361	8681372	1290267	983059	991905	991617	991838	2942099	2941931	757194	756997	998083	998415	998412	998428	998275	998243	998363	998365	998460	998224