Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: AT

Submission year: 2011

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants:	1990 – 2009
HMs and POPs:	1990 – 2009
PMs:	2000 – 2009

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009
NOx	1A3	91630	91281	89978	88433	87835	85856	85041	84664	85288	86095	87198	85677	85043	85483	85193	85092	84144	82919	79833	71144
NMVOC	3D2	11607	11162	10239	11774	12480	15267	15332	17377	16494	15908	19765	20743	21956	22076	18663	20837	24507	22329	20580	14955
SOx	1A1b	2252	2110	2847	3422	3030	2984	3488	3662	3795	3551	3441	3617	3691	3683	3835	3350	3691	3234	851	581
SOx	1A2a	6729	5348	3479	3940	4243	4215	4760	4755	4702	4734	4465	4795	4896	5036	4707	5313	5768	5594	5283	4749
NH3	1A3bi	2704	4201	5137	5953	6664	6480	5901	5415	5450	4751	4326	4074	4073	3824	3340	2852	2347	1963	1537	1311
NH3	4B1b	17609	17727	16898	17330	17664	19702	19328	18204	17725	18127	19464	19345	18949	19411	19840	19487	19587	19750	19714	20143
NH3	4B9a	4861	4987	4763	5028	4908	4868	4520	5161	5010	5105	4099	4405	4405	4571	4571	4571	4571	4571	4571	4571
CO	1A3bii	59664	56109	52320	48532	44848	40255	36045	31998	28406	25134	22196	19349	16720	14356	12226	11365	9942	8144	6002	4537
CO	FUTOTAL	1431973	1443710	1451829	1442997	1415316	1304942	1297124	1206045	1126227	1063926	980705	918837	842860	813801	771970	757646	717470	671231	648760	616461
CO	NATIONALTOTAL	1433217	1497152	1468044	1436081	1382854	1269839	1243633	1147738	1105835	1027830	954243	916577	881063	874888	836722	820919	772250	720846	681480	648776

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009
Pb	1A1a	904845	944650	755532	585577	528110	518748	643830	694831	624406	548519	749051	841549	987408	1150161	1159505	1180475	1322941	1523032	1643369	1560943
Pb	1A2b	4082152	3788323	2985693	2800778	2653528	3111185	3112280	2613661	2088638	1564092	1039014	1052326	1052704	1052683	1052686	1052515	1052474	1052567	1052566	1052669
Pb	1A2fi	4379491	4613546	3830348	3488787	3343902	2952829	2495156	1855691	1375550	1034128	514990	552701	524464	548291	568573	690332	733670	953574	1094522	1057854
Pb	1A3	167428048	124213619	88644450	59176210	37182488	17994	17833	15261	14760	14519	13901	12813	12621	11854	10669	10307	10157	9997	9787	9363
Pb	1A3aii(i)	1726028	1778658	1832894	1888783	1946376	14	14	16	17	18	14	12	15	16	15	17	18	18	19	20
Pb	1A3bi	146476302	116921932	77323769	48717552	28777120	9925	9270	8899	9468	8903	8738	8984	9902	10365	10303	10156	9958	9853	8978	8943
Pb	1A3bii	14670085	11395595	8381022	5668966	3346120	815	790	771	757	747	735	711	683	665	650	660	655	643	597	558
Pb	2C1	32091626	27090229	18608240	15144977	12024342	4679299	4259928	4791003	4702700	4906128	5480488	5350192	5649015	5675439	5898690	6492852	6607564	6999915	6974657	5156752
Pb	FUTOTAL	218800364	170071108	122919400	88142963	61681085	16049674	15484432	14467955	12982122	12416806	11902957	12037307	12195142	12514942	12902982	13673569	13728867	14374315	14706449	12678321
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	218395717	179458165	124553150	87215715	59785818	16049336	15484060	14467174	12982372	12416505	11902979	12038131	12197397	12518217	12906565	13677315	13732304	14377778	14709091	12681098
Cd	1A3	60352	63172	65313	66731	69384	70868	72508	74224	76353	78599	80759	81989	83559	85601	87013	89292	92205	95021	94559	91199
Cd	1A3bvii	56540	59259	61269	62645	65169	66577	68155	69958	72035	74206	76337	77594	79098	81119	82543	84822	87775	90543	90136	87003
Cd	FUTOTAL	1577885	1526343	1246513	1161884	1062904	974527	994777	969513	899199	946591	924412	949856	936791	976288	977706	1075026	1062973	1099011	1140011	1053493
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	1578120	1526840	1246891	1162226	1063130	974768	995375	969796	899949	947101	925125	950913	938370	978299	979834	1077240	1064876	1100921	1141598	1055100
Hg	1A2fi	710856	590574	442930	301806	155463	105422	100215	118238	103063	118245	118461	147792	145419	167021	144155	165478	190344	202504	217521	211444
Hg	2B5a	270117	252107	234099	216105	198103	180077	180079	180078	110082	45083	86	81	85	90	92	88	92	75	88	72
Hg	FUTOTAL	2141937	2037821	1640251	1391023	1178265	1199895	1157931	1132849	948541	933154	893088	954032	917836	960198	933802	998679	1010022	1010120	1027063	913887
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	2142019	2037995	1640383	1391143	1178344	1199979	1158140	1132949	948804	933333	893338	954402	918389	960902	934547	999454	1010689	1010788	1027618	914449

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009
DIOX	1A2b	50336	24922	2739	2126	2152	2163	2207	6109	6107	1740	1738	2217	2220	2220	2220	2219	2219	2220	2220	2221
DIOX	FUTOTAL	160592	135013	76633	66909	56213	58422	59650	59346	56066	53478	51831	52982	40074	39908	39940	42799	39452	38129	38188	35654
DIOX	NATIONALTOTAL	160649	135342	76776	66976	56206	58429	59744	59372	56259	53614	52035	53279	40481	40396	40437	43303	39864	38532	38535	35995