Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: AL

Submission year: 2011

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants:	1990 – 2009
HMs and POPs:	1990 – 2009
PMs:	2000 – 2009

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009
NOx	1A1b	1187	617	475	465	508	535	490	301	342	324	371	364	359	407	417	392	468	423	367
NOx	1A3bi	1896	2941	3153	4443	4651	4800	5109	5418	5858	5844	6203	6737	7294	7365	10877	10824	9795	9422	10350
NOx	GRIDTOTAL	22110	18118	14932	16445	16826	16893	17690	17206	17775	18721	20823	22142	23060	23921	28476	28665	28405	27064	28865
NOx	NATIONALTOTAL	22110	18118	14932	16445	16826	16893	17690	17206	17775	18721	20823	22142	23060	23921	28476	28665	28405	27064	28865
NMVOC	1A3bi	1358	2040	2170	2965	3041	3169	3343	3520	3755	3531	3916	4378	4836	4322	6273	6747	6828	5581	5920
NMVOC	3A1	196	106	66	115	185	226	281	205	255	321	344	382	416	528	697	782	850	1012	1148
NMVOC	3A2	369	200	124	216	348	425	529	385	479	603	647	718	781	992	1310	1470	1596	1901	2158
SOx	1A1b	31046	16144	12418	12170	13288	14008	12432	7808	9542	8086	8502	8615	9097	10085	11059	10961	11882	11832	9905
SOx	1A2fi	15948	6641	3308	2349	1510	1343	985	543	553	98	149	170	100	89	60	1472	2484	3007	3235
SOx	1A3bi	249	406	440	647	695	709	763	817	898	957	968	1015	1072	1243	1867	1713	1343	1575	1791
SOx	1A4ai	7751	7792	4298	5172	5215	5213	5226	4704	5221	5686	5125	5341	6004	7471	6248	461	4897	3630	7144
SOx	GRIDTOTAL	78011	52334	35466	38625	36704	42904	41236	36635	34344	36360	39422	39879	40887	45507	46348	39130	40672	41875	36590
SOx	NATIONALTOTAL	78011	52334	35466	38625	36704	42904	41236	36635	34344	36360	39422	39879	40887	45507	46348	39130	40672	41875	36590
NH3	4B6	844	2412	1510	1598	1687	1717	1628	1154	962	932	932	992	962	932	858	784	755	681	636
NH3	4B8	1680	1133	718	769	813	826	771	744	641	747	784	803	867	996	1079	1105	1138	1136	1208
NH3	4B9a	854	597	71	438	572	612	586	580	2219	486	578	546	662	647	844	845	781	1163	1488
CO	1A3bi	12654	19108	20348	27951	28772	29931	31622	33339	35649	33887	37280	41465	45638	41706	60742	64377	63896	53760	57410

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009
Pb	1A2fi	2088000	946000	513000	386000	272000	249000	197000	134000	127000	67000	67000	71000	60000	42000	20000	51000	57000	98000	114000
Pb	1A3bi	19210000	28697000	30478000	41423000	42334000	44191000	46539000	48941000	52079000	48417000	54157000	60875000	67478000	58912000	85205000	46540000	801000	635000	669000
Pb	1A3bii	35182000	28954000	28343000	22355000	25913000	19120000	18905000	18866000	19394000	16877000	20119000	22246000	23242000	17793000	20540000	10643000	138000	156000	129000
Pb	1A4bi	480000	412000	345000	277000	257000	237000	218000	198000	178000	180000	186000	191000	197000	311000	406000	400000	400000	355000	333000
Pb	2C1	325000	39000	18000	57000	65000	68000	75000	75000	78000	156000	182000	208000	234000	260000	286000	351000	338000	416000	598000
Pb	2C2	960000	1000000	600000	1400000	1360000	1720000	1248000	1258000	1210000	1125000	500000	476000	912000	1512000	1908000	1431000	1986000	1986000	1986000
Pb	2C5a	2006000	816000	386000	393000	258000	493000	241000		277000	218000
Pb	GRIDTOTAL	61900000	62511000	61837000	67313000	71590000	66918000	68259000	70316000	74110000	67785000	76137000	85069000	93104000	79853000	109693000	60155000	3868000	3811000	4024000
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	61900000	62511000	61837000	67313000	71590000	66918000	68259000	70316000	74110000	67785000	76137000	85069000	93104000	79853000	109693000	60155000	3868000	3811000	4024000
Cd	1A1b	10000	5000	4000	4000	4000	5000	4000	3000	3000	3000	3000	3000	3000	3000	4000	4000	4000	4000	3000
Cd	1A3bii	2000	1000	1000	1000	1000	1000	1000	1000	1000	1000	1000	1000	1000	1000	1000	1000	1000	1000	1000
Cd	2C1	25000	3000	1000	4000	5000	5000	6000	6000	6000	12000	14000	16000	18000	20000	22000	27000	26000	32000	46000
Cd	GRIDTOTAL	305000	143000	75000	74000	60000	79000	57000	33000	53000	53000	36000	39000	43000	46000	52000	58000	55000	64000	77000
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	305000	143000	75000	74000	60000	79000	57000	33000	53000	53000	36000	39000	43000	46000	52000	58000	55000	64000	77000
Hg	1A2fi	251000	127000	57000	45000	27000	35000	28000	15000	14000	13000	14000	17000	15000	17000	14000	40000	42000	86000	103000
Hg	2C1	6000	1000		1000	1000	1000	1000	1000	2000	3000	4000	4000	4000	5000	5000	7000	6000	8000	12000
Hg	GRIDTOTAL	272000	143000	65000	53000	37000	44000	37000	23000	22000	22000	24000	27000	25000	29000	26000	54000	55000	100000	122000
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	272000	143000	65000	53000	37000	44000	37000	23000	22000	22000	24000	27000	25000	29000	26000	54000	55000	100000	122000

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009
DIOX	1A3bi	2826	4561	4933	7194	7694	7861	8446	9023	9887	10425	10626	11216	11895	13470	20181	18767	15101	17099	19332
HCB	1A2fi	65000	51000	41000	35000	31000	30000	27000	23000	21000	18000	16000	16000	15000	10000	3000	6000	7000	10000	12000